{"id":4859,"date":"2018-03-07T16:59:28","date_gmt":"2018-03-07T16:59:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.beer-syndicate.com\/blog\/?p=4859"},"modified":"2018-03-13T16:01:25","modified_gmt":"2018-03-13T16:01:25","slug":"data-chug-outlier-breweries-beeradvocates-top-250","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/beersyndicate.com\/blog\/data-chug-outlier-breweries-beeradvocates-top-250\/","title":{"rendered":"Data Chug: The Outlier Breweries in BeerAdvocate\u2019s Top 250"},"content":{"rendered":"

Previously on Data Chug<\/em>,<\/a><\/span> we took a broad look at the Top 250 beers<\/a><\/span> listed on the beer ranking website BeerAdvocate.\u00a0 We highlighted the top 10 beers, identified popular beer styles, ABV trends, the countries and states with the most beers in the Top 250, and more.<\/span><\/p>\n

There were charts, jokes, and a cliffhanger ending that revealed two breweries that appeared a rather curious<\/em> amount of times in the Top 250.<\/span><\/p>\n

Today, we pick up where we left off by taking a closer look at what we affectionately refer to as \u201cthe outlier breweries.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Now on with the Q & A\u2026<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

The Outlier Breweries<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Q1.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Last time you mentioned that there were 210,023<\/strong> different beers listed on BeerAdvocate, so to have a brewery with even a single <\/em>beer in the Top 250 was impressive.\u00a0 But there were actually several breweries that had more than one beer in the Top 250. What can you tell me about those breweries?<\/span><\/p>\n

A1.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Right, so there were 86<\/strong> breweries in total in the Top 250, and 45<\/strong> of those breweries had more than one beer on the list.\u00a0 In fact the average number of beers per brewery in the Top 250 was 2.91<\/strong>, so it wasn\u2019t all that unusual for a brewery to have more than one beer in the Top 250.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, what was unusual<\/em> was that two breweries, namely Trillium Brewing Co. <\/strong>and Hill Farmstead Brewery<\/strong>, both had exactly 20 beers each<\/u><\/strong> in the Top 250. This means that nearly 1 out of every 6 <\/strong>beers in the Top 250 was either from Trillium or Hill Farmstead.\u00a0 If having one beer in the Top 250 is impressive, what do you call having 20?<\/span><\/p>\n

Q2.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Really impressive<\/em>? I don\u2019t know— it seems a little bit more than unusual to me.\u00a0 But Trillium and Hill Farmstead weren\u2019t the only outlier breweries with a statistically high number of beers in the Top 250, so what were the other ones?<\/span><\/p>\n

A2.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> We identified a total of 8 outlier breweries.\u00a0 Basically any brewery with more than 6 beers in the Top 250 would be considered a statistical outlier as you can see in the box plot graph below:<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Of the outlier breweries, there were four that had 7<\/strong> beers each<\/strong> in the Top 250 which included\u00a0Russian River<\/strong>, Toppling Goliath<\/strong>, 3 Fonteinen<\/strong>, and Prairie Artisan Ales<\/strong>.\u00a0 Next, you had Brasserie Cantillon<\/strong> with 8<\/u><\/strong>, Tree House<\/strong> with 13<\/u><\/strong>, and as you know, both Hill Farmstead<\/strong> and Trillium<\/strong> both had 20<\/u><\/strong> beers each in the Top 250.\u00a0 By the way, 3 Fonteinen and Cantillon are both Belgian breweries, the rest are American.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Interestingly, even though there are only 8 outlier breweries out of a total of 86 breweries in the Top 250, those 8 breweries contributed a combined total of 89<\/strong> beers to the Top 250, or 35.60%<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Q3.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Okay, so there are 8 outlier breweries. But still, having 20 beers in the Top 250 like Hill Farmstead and Trillium did just seems crazy. So what\u2019s going on with those breweries?<\/span><\/p>\n

A3.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Alright, so imagine that Hill Farmstead and Trillium only produced 20 beers per brewery, and also imagine that every single one of those beers were in the Top 250. Basically, we thought it would be pretty strange if 100% of the beers brewed by any given brewery were all in the Top 250.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q4.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> So that\u2019s what you found? Every beer brewed by Hill Farmstead and Trillium were in the Top 250?<\/span><\/p>\n

A4.<\/strong><\/span> Not exactly. After we looked at the total number of beers currently brewed by each outlier brewery, we found there wasn\u2019t anything necessarily<\/em> unusual about either Hill Farmstead or Trillium when compared to most of the other outlier breweries.<\/span><\/p>\n

For example, when we pulled the numbers in mid-February of 2018, Hill Farmstead was currently producing 124<\/strong> different beers, and of those 124, 20<\/strong> were in the Top 250. In other words, 16.1%<\/strong> of the beers currently produced by Hill Farmstead were in the Top 250.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trillium<\/strong> was at 14.9%<\/strong>. As for the rest of the outliers, 3 Fonteinen<\/strong> was at 26.9%<\/strong>, Cantillon<\/strong> at 22.86%<\/strong>, Tree House<\/strong> was at 20.96%<\/strong>, Toppling Goliath<\/strong> at 14.28%<\/strong>, Russian River<\/strong> at 11.67%<\/strong>, and Prairie Artisan Ales<\/strong> was relatively low in comparison at 4.7%<\/strong>.\u00a0 If you look at it this way, both Trillium and Hill Farmstead weren\u2019t sticking out, but were right in the middle of the pack of the outliers.\u00a0 The average percentage of beers contributed per brewery of the outliers was 16.54%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q5.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> So what you\u2019re saying is that it\u2019s just a numbers game?\u00a0 Basically, the more variety of beers that a brewery produces, the more that the chances increase that one of those beers will make it into the Top 250?\u00a0 If that\u2019s true, then those percentages that the outlier breweries were putting up would be similar for every brewery, including the non-outliers in the Top 250.\u00a0 So what do the percentages for the non-outlier breweries look like?<\/span><\/p>\n

A6.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Okay, so there were initially 8 outlier breweries identified out of a total of 86 breweries in the Top 250, which means there were 78 non-outlier breweries.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Lost Abbey<\/strong> was one of the non-outliers, producing a total of 57<\/strong> beers, 2<\/strong> of which appeared in the Top 250.\u00a0 In other words, 3.5%<\/strong> of the beers The Lost Abbey produced were in the Top 250.\u00a0 Likewise, Avery<\/strong> was at 1.7%<\/strong>, Deschutes<\/strong> at 0.56%<\/strong>, Firestone<\/strong> at 3.2%<\/strong>, Other Half Brewing Co.<\/strong> was at 2.02%<\/strong>, etc.<\/span><\/p>\n

After chugging the numbers, it turned out that an outlier brewery was now any brewery that had more than 9.79%<\/u><\/strong> of its beers it currently produced in the Top 250.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q7.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Wait, so where does that leave Prairie Artisan Ales?\u00a0 It was originally an outlier brewery because it had 7 beers in the Top 250.\u00a0 But because those 7 beers represented only 4.7% of the brewery\u2019s total production, it\u2019s not considered an outlier anymore?<\/span><\/p>\n

A7.<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\u00a0 That\u2019s right.\u00a0 However, looking at the numbers relative to the quantity of different beers produced per brewery just reinforced the fact that the other outlier breweries were unusual, and appearing in the Top 250 wasn\u2019t just a numbers game.\u00a0 In other words, greatness in the brewing world isn\u2019t simply a matter of throwing enough stuff at the wall until something sticks, at least not according to an analysis of BeerAdvocate\u2019s data.<\/span><\/p>\n

What\u2019s more, we identified 4<\/strong> new outlier breweries that had more than 9.79%<\/strong> of the beers they currently produced appearing in the Top 250. Those breweries were Alpine Beer Company<\/strong> at 10.71%<\/strong>, Brouwerij Rodenbach N.V.<\/strong> at 12.5%<\/strong>, Brasserie de Rochefort<\/strong> at 33.33%<\/strong>, and Brouwerij Westvleteren<\/strong> at a staggering 66.66%<\/strong>. Of the now 11<\/strong> outlier breweries, 5<\/strong> were Belgian<\/strong>, and the other 6<\/strong> were American<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Q8<\/span>.<\/span><\/strong><\/span> Alright, these percentages just seem insane. I mean, is there some conspiracy type stuff going on? What does all this mean?<\/span><\/p>\n

A8.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Ah, now there\u2019s a question. In statistical analysis, sometimes the juiciest information can be obtained by looking more closely at the outliers.<\/span><\/p>\n

In this case, if you take the data from BeerAdvocate at face value, it could mean that the outlier breweries like Tree House, Toppling Goliath, Trillium, Hill Farmstead, etc. are simply out-preforming all other breweries in the world at a statistically significant level, with respect to specific beer styles.<\/span><\/p>\n

There\u2019s certainly a case to be made that a brewery like Cantillon, founded in 1900, simply specialized and excelled in a limited number of beer styles over many years, and became a world leader par excellence in those specific and relatively sparsely produced categories like Gueuze and Lambic, which are the only kind of beers Cantillon makes.\u00a0 8 <\/strong>out of 35<\/strong> beers from Cantillon appear in the Top 250.<\/span><\/p>\n

This pattern is similar for the other Belgian outlier breweries such as Brouwerij Westvleteren<\/strong>, a brewery that at first glance seems remarkably unusual with 66.66%<\/strong> of its beers appearing in the Top 250. However, we should also consider that the brewery, founded in 1838, only currently produces 3 beers in total, 2 of which were in the Top 250. One of those beers, Westvleteren 12, was rated a perfect 100\/100 by RateBeer,<\/span><\/a> and is considered by some sources to be the best beer in the world.<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

You may include Rochefort<\/strong> (founded 1595), Rodenbach<\/strong> (1821), and 3 Fonteinen<\/strong> (1887) into that list of Belgian breweries that produce a relatively small variety of beers, but have perfected those beers over generations, and are consistently recognized as world-class breweries, often epitomizing the beers styles they produce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Similar to the production range of Brouwerij Westvleteren, Rochefort<\/strong> only produces 3<\/strong> beers, 1<\/strong> of which (or 33%) was in the Top 250. Rodenbach<\/strong> essentially invented and mastered the Flanders Red style, the only style of beer it brews, so it wasn\u2019t surprising to see 1<\/strong> of the 8<\/strong> beers it produces (Caract\u00e8re Rouge) in the Top 250. \u00a0Likewise, 3 Fonteinen<\/strong> specializes predominately in Lambic and Gueuze, and contributed 7<\/strong> of its 26<\/strong> beers to the Top 250.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q9.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Okay, maybe that explains the Belgian breweries somewhat, but what about the American outliers?<\/span><\/p>\n

A9. <\/strong><\/span><\/span>Unlike the Belgian outlier breweries that typically only brew a small variety of beer styles, most of the American outliers brew a wider range, but they tend to specialize or excel at one particular beer style.<\/span><\/p>\n

For example, the majority of beers contributed by Alpine<\/strong> (founded 1999), Tree House<\/strong> (2012), and Trillium<\/strong> (2013) in the Top 250 are hop-forward beer styles.<\/span><\/p>\n

Russian River<\/strong>, founded in 1997, is widely known for its Pliny the Elder<\/a><\/span> and Pliny the Younger<\/a><\/span> double and triple IPAs, both of which appear in the Top 250 and were also rated 100\/100 by RateBeer.\u00a0 In addition to mastering the double IPA, a beer style the brewery is credited with inventing,<\/a><\/span> Russian River was one of the first American breweries to specialize in sour and barrel-aged beers, and led in the American Wild Ale category with 5<\/strong> beers in the Top 250.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toppling Goliath<\/strong> (founded in 2009) is a bit of a mixed bag with 3<\/strong> examples of imperial stout in the Top 250, along with 4<\/strong> examples of hop-forward styles. Likewise, Hill Farmstead<\/strong> (founded 2010) has 12<\/strong> hop-forward styles in the Top 250, and the rest are a mix of saisons, stouts and a single porter.<\/span><\/p>\n

But even though Hill Farmstead produces a variety of beers compared to most of the other outliers, it was awarded the title of \u201cBest New Brewery in the World\u201d by RateBeer in 2011, and \u201cBest Brewery in the World\u201d every year from 2013-2017.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q10.<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\u00a0 Interesting, but when I looked at BeerAdvocate\u2019s list of all American IPAs and there were literally beers there with PERFECT<\/span><\/u> scores.<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span> None of those perfect scoring beers appeared in the Top 250, so what gives?<\/span><\/p>\n

A10.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> You\u2019re correct, you might find several beers with perfect scores listed under many different beer style categories, but many of those perfect scores came from only one reviewer.\u00a0\u00a0 The fact is that BeerAdvocate\u2019s ranking algorithm<\/span><\/a> weights a beer\u2019s score based on the number of reviews the beer has had, which is why those higher rated beers don\u2019t appear in the Top 250.<\/span><\/p>\n

What this means is that there very well could be and probably are better commercial examples of certain beer styles out there than those that appear in the Top 250, but it may take a little while until more of the BeerAdvocate user base has a chance to weigh in on those beers.\u00a0 What this suggests is that the many of the current outlier breweries will not be there forever.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nonetheless, we should probably expect to see some of the Belgian outlier breweries in the Top 250 for a while, particularly those breweries producing time-intensive beers styles like Lambic, Gueuze and Flanders Red.\u00a0 These beer styles often take upwards of three years to produce, not to mention the perhaps generations<\/em> of knowledge needed to perfect those styles.\u00a0 All of this makes it cost-prohibitive for other breweries to attempt, which limits the respective competition.<\/span><\/p>\n

For now, what we can say with certainty is that there are a relatively small number of breweries on BeerAdvocate\u2019s Top 250 that are contributing a statistically significant number of beers to that list.<\/span><\/p>\n

And outliers typically demand attention especially in situations where it\u2019s clear that the outliers were not due to simple data collection errors.\u00a0 By the way, the data we used<\/a><\/span> is open to the public to independently verify.\u00a0 We\u2019ve even made it easy to sort the data by state, country, brewery, score, etc.\u00a0 In other words, feel free to chug the numbers yourself.\u00a0 Here’s the link: BeerAdvocate’s Top 250.<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Q11.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> You know, we spent all this time talking about the \u201cTop 250 beers,\u201d but did you ever consider the source of that data?\u00a0 What I mean is that if the user base is predominately English-speaking Americans, doesn\u2019t that skew the data in favor of American breweries?<\/span><\/p>\n

A11.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> You\u2019re not wrong.\u00a0 I wonder, is that the same as saying \u201cyou\u2019re not<\/em> not<\/em> not wrong?\u201d\u00a0 Anyways, what I mean is that you\u2019re right, or not<\/em> not right.<\/span><\/p>\n

Basically, it\u2019s more likely that the results of the beers in the BeerAdvocate\u2019s Top 250 had less to do with a conspiracy, and more to do with the demographics of the website\u2019s user base and how the algorithm functions.\u00a0 Even so, outliers still exist within this particular data set, and statistically speaking, those outlier breweries deserve a spotlight.<\/span><\/p>\n

Of course, interpretation of that data can be tricky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q12.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Okay, so you\u2019re admitting that BeerAdvocate\u2019s Top 250 is just one data set and it may be limited by certain factors including its user base which you speculate is dominated by American English-speakers.\u00a0 Rarity and hype might also be factors.\u00a0 Come to think of it, if you\u2019re trying to independently verify if there is anything special about those outlier breweries you mentioned, don\u2019t you think you should look more thoroughly at other data sets?<\/span><\/p>\n

Like, did you even think to analyze Untappd\u2019s list of Top Rated beers to see how it compares to BeerAdvocate\u2019s list?<\/span><\/p>\n

A12.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> \u201cUntappd\u201d<\/em> you say?\u00a0 You mean the geosocial networking service and mobile phone application that allows its users to rate beers and earn digital badges to increase the users average time spent on the app?\u00a0 That<\/em> Untappd?\u00a0 Why, yes, we did think to analyze that data.<\/span><\/p>\n

In fact, we did more than just think about it.\u00a0 We pulled the data, chopped it up, ran a statistically analysis, and put it all together just for you.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q13.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Alright, let\u2019s have it.\u00a0 Anything juicy?<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

A13.<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Oh, it\u2019s juicy alright— juicy like a big hazy NE IPA.\u00a0 Let me see<\/em>, I know I put that article somewhere for you\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

Ah, there<\/em> it is:<\/span><\/p>\n

Next on Tap\u2026<\/em><\/strong> Data Chug: Analysis of Untappd’s Top Rated Beers<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Hi, I\u2019m Dan<\/strong>: Beer Editor for\u00a0Beer Syndicate<\/a>,<\/span> Beer and Drinking Blogger, Beer Judge, Gold Medal-Winning Homebrewer, Beer Reviewer,\u00a0American Homebrewers Association<\/a><\/span>\u00a0Member, Shameless Beer Promoter, and Beer Traveler.<\/p>\n

\"Daniel

Dan with Owner and Brewer Jean-Pierre van Roy of Brasserie\u00a0<\/strong>Cantillon Seen Sporting a Hill Farmstead T-Shirt.<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n\n

<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Previously on Data Chug, we took a broad look at the Top 250 beers listed on the beer ranking website BeerAdvocate.\u00a0 We highlighted the top 10 beers, identified popular beer styles, ABV trends, the countries and states with the most beers in the Top 250, and more. There were charts, jokes, and a cliffhanger ending […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[589],"tags":[1097,1101,1105,1092,1089,1087,1099,1102,1103,1104,1094,1098,1095,1096,1100,1093],"yoast_head":"\r\nData Chug: The Outlier Breweries in BeerAdvocate\u2019s Top 250 - Beer Syndicate Blog<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"googlebot\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"bingbot\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/www.beer-syndicate.com\/blog\/data-chug-outlier-breweries-beeradvocates-top-250\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Data Chug: The Outlier Breweries in BeerAdvocate\u2019s Top 250 - Beer Syndicate Blog\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Previously on Data Chug, we took a broad look at the Top 250 beers listed on the beer ranking website BeerAdvocate.\u00a0 We highlighted the top 10 beers, identified popular beer styles, ABV trends, the countries and states with the most beers in the Top 250, and more. 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